Highlights

• • Falcons implied probability: 91.3% vs our estimate 88% → negative EV
• • Underdog would need ≥17.1% true chance to be fair; we estimate ~12% → no value

Pros

• + We avoid a likely negative-ROI bet on a heavily priced favorite
• + Conservative estimation reduces risk of overrating underdog variance

Cons

• - Lack of external scouting/injury/form data increases uncertainty in our probability estimates
• - If Falcons are stronger than our conservative estimate (≫88%), small positive EV could exist but is not evident from available prices

Details

Market prices imply Falcons win probability = 1/1.095 = 91.3% and Nemesis = 1/5.85 = 17.1% (sum includes bookmaker margin). With no external scouting data available, we apply conservative assumptions: Falcons are very likely favorites but not certain. We estimate Falcons true win probability at 88.0% (0.88). At that probability the fair decimal price would be 1.136, which is above the available price of 1.095, producing negative expected value. Calculation: EV_fav = 0.88 * 1.095 - 1 = -0.0364 (≈ -3.6% ROI). The underdog at the quoted price (5.85) would require a true chance ≥17.1% to be fair; we estimate Nemesis nearer 12.0%, giving EV_underdog = 0.12 * 5.85 - 1 = -0.298 (≈ -29.8% ROI). Both sides show negative EV at current market prices, so we do not recommend a wager. Odds used for EV calculation: Falcons 1.095.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Falcons (≈91.3%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (88%)
• • Large favorite pricing compresses value; bookmaker margin present
• • No independent injury/form/H2H data available — we use conservative assumptions increasing uncertainty