Falcons vs Xtreme
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no reliable external information and a conservative 58% estimate for Falcons, the current Falcons price (1.654) does not offer value and we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Falcons implied probability (market) ≈ 60.5%; our conservative estimate = 58%
- • Negative EV at current market prices (≈ -4.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake for Falcons)
Pros
- + Market clearly favors Falcons, consistent with a modest home/favorite edge assumption
- + Odds are stable and widely available, so if new info emerges the market may move
Cons
- - We lack match-specific intel (form, roster, patch adaptation), increasing uncertainty
- - Current prices do not clear our minimum required odds (1.724) for Falcons to be profitable
Details
We have no independent data on recent form, roster changes, or head-to-head, so we apply conservative assumptions and compare our estimated win probability to the market prices. The market prices imply ~60.5% for Falcons (1.654) and ~46.7% for Xtreme (2.14) after simple inversion. We estimate the Falcons' true win probability at 58% (slight home/favorite edge but no confirmation), which is lower than the market-implied probability; that produces a negative expected value at the current Falcons price. The Xtreme price would require an implied probability materially below our conservative estimate to be valuable, and our independent estimate suggests it is also over-priced relative to fair value. Given both sides produce negative EV under conservative assumptions and the vig in the market, we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • No independent data on form, roster changes, or matchup specifics — we assume slight home edge only
- • Market-implied odds slightly favor Falcons; our conservative true probability is lower than the market-implied probability
- • Bookmaker margin (vig) increases the threshold for finding value