Famalicao vs SINNERS
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given conservative assumptions and the current price (SINNERS 1.039), there is no positive expected value on either side; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for SINNERS: ~96.15%
- • Our estimated fair probability for SINNERS: 90% → required odds 1.111
Pros
- + SINNERS priced as overwhelming favorite, reflecting likely strong form or roster advantage
- + If you believed SINNERS >90% certain, breakeven odds would still need to be 1.111 or higher
Cons
- - Current market odds (1.039) are too short to offer value versus our conservative estimate
- - No external data (form, lineup, venue) available to justify deviation from conservative probabilities
Details
We compared the market-implied probabilities to a conservative internal estimate. Market prices imply SINNERS win at ~96.15% (1/1.039) while Famalicao is priced at ~11.63% (1/8.6). With no external research available and applying a conservative assumption that SINNERS are very likely but not certain, we estimate SINNERS win probability at 90.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.111, substantially higher than the available 1.039, producing negative expected value. The home side would need a materially higher true probability than we can justify given the lack of information, so neither side offers value at current market prices.
Key factors
- • No external research or matchup data available — we apply conservative assumptions
- • Market implies an extremely high probability for SINNERS (~96.15%), likely overstating certainty
- • Our conservative estimate for SINNERS (90%) yields required odds ~1.111 to break even, above the current 1.039