Highlights

• • Profiles indicate parity between the pairs — no obvious skill gap
• • Away odds (3.05) imply >3x payout and convert to positive EV at our estimated probability

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market-implied probability and research-based estimate
• + Current away odds (3.05) produce a strong positive EV against our model

Cons

• - Limited data depth — no doubles-specific chemistry or H2H information available
• - Unusual market skew could reflect unobserved factors (injuries, late withdrawals, local knowledge)

Details

We find value on the away side. The available player profiles show both pairs have nearly identical career records (10-21), similar surfaces (clay/hard) and recent form dominated by losses — there is no clear performance edge for the home duo. The market has heavily favored the home team at 1.34 (implying ~74.6% win probability), but the research does not justify such a large gap. We estimate a more balanced match-up with a modest edge to the home side due to venue, so we assess the away pair's true win probability at 45%. At the quoted away decimal price of 3.05 this yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 3.05 - 1 = 0.3725), indicating the away price offers significant value versus our estimated probability. We therefore recommend backing the away pair only because EV > 0 at the current market price.

Key factors

• • Both pairs show identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history
• • Recent match results for all four players show losses and no clear form advantage
• • Market heavily favors home (1.34) despite no supporting performance differential