Highlights

• • Market-implied prob for Liu = 33.3% vs our estimate 37%
• • Minimum fair odds needed for value = 2.703; current 3.0 exceeds that

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current market price
• + Both players' profiles are similar, reducing likelihood of large hidden edges for the favorite

Cons

• - Both players show overall weak recent records (10-21), increasing variance and unpredictability
• - Limited matchup-specific data and no H2H available increases uncertainty in the estimate

Details

We see the market pricing Yeon Woo Ku at ~75% implied probability (1.333) and Fangzhou Liu at ~33.3% (3.0). The raw player data in the research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience on clay and hard, with no injury flags or clear head-to-head edge provided. Given the parity in records and recent form, we believe the bookmaker has over-weighted Ku and under-priced Liu. Conservatively, we estimate Liu's true win probability at 37%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 33.3%, creating value on the 3.0 price. Calculation: EV = 0.37 * 3.0 - 1 = +0.11 (11% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend the home upset at current prices because the odds available (3.0) exceed our minimum required fair odds (2.703) for Liu to be a positive-EV play.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surfaces played suggest matchup parity
• • Market implies a large gap (75% vs 33.3%) not supported by available form/information
• • No injuries or withdrawals reported for either player in the provided research
• • Underdog pricing (3.0) offers a cushion vs our conservative probability estimate