Highlights

• • Norin's vast experience and higher career win percentage
• • Current price (1.485) slightly above our break-even threshold (1.471)

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-volume advantage
• + Versatility across Clay/Hard reduces surface-based downside

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses; form uncertainty reduces confidence
• - Edge is very small (≈0.98% ROI) and could be erased by late info or matchup specifics

Details

We estimate value on Fanny Norin versus Sevil Yuldasheva based on a substantial experience and career-quality gap. Norin has 1,066 career matches and a ~52.5% lifetime win rate versus Yuldasheva's 31 matches and ~32.3% win rate; that discrepancy typically translates to a material edge in ITF-level matchups even when recent results are mixed. The market price of 1.485 implies an implied probability of ~67.3%; we assess Norin's true win probability at 68.0% based on experience, broader match play depth, and surface versatility (both list Clay/Hard as common surfaces). That gives a small positive edge: EV = 0.68 * 1.485 - 1 = ~0.0098 (≈0.98% ROI). The edge is slim and sensitive to uncertainty in form/injury or matchup specifics, so it is a modest-value recommendation only because current odds slightly exceed our break-even threshold.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Norin 1,066 matches vs Yuldasheva 31 matches
• • Career win-rate gap: Norin ~52.5% vs Yuldasheva ~32.3%
• • Market implies 67.3% for Norin; we estimate 68.0% (small but positive edge)