Highlights

• • Home implied by market: ~45.9%; our estimate: 40.0%
• • Required fair odds for home: 2.500 vs market 2.18 → negative EV

Pros

• + Norin's long career and overall winning record indicate baseline competency
• + Market offers a higher payout on the home side than a 50/50 line would

Cons

• - Recent form for Norin appears poor in the provided match snippets
• - No data on Viktoria Veleva in the provided research increases uncertainty; market may already price superior info

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 2.18, Away 1.62) to our estimated win probabilities. The market implies roughly 45.9% for Fanny Norin (home) and 61.7% for Viktoria Veleva (away). Research on Fanny Norin shows a long career record (559-507) but recent documented results in the last 10 indicate losses and uneven form; there is no usable data provided for Veleva in the research. Given Norin's mixed recent form we estimate her true win probability at ~40.0% (0.40). At that probability the required fair decimal odds would be 2.500. The current home price of 2.18 is shorter than fair (EV = 0.40 * 2.18 - 1 = -0.128), so it offers negative expected value. Even if we allocate the residual probability to Veleva (estimated ~58%), the current away price 1.62 is also shorter than a realistic fair price (~1.724) and yields negative EV. With the available information we find no positive expected-value opportunity at the publicly quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Fanny Norin has a long career (559-507) but recent documented matches show losses and uneven form
• • Market currently favors the away player (implied probabilities show market edge to away)
• • No usable research data provided for Viktoria Veleva, increasing uncertainty and market information asymmetry