Highlights

• • Implied market chance (84%) > our estimate (78%) — negative EV
• • Insufficient opponent and surface/injury data to justify backing the short-priced favorite

Pros

• + Sacco's long career and experience at ITF level suggest competency in later rounds
• + Home designation and seeding at QF stage typically favor the experienced player

Cons

• - Provided recent-match snippets indicate recent losses and mixed form
• - Market price is very short, leaving little margin for model error; no clear value

Details

We estimate Federica Sacco's true win probability at about 78% based on her long career (559-507) and likely tournament experience advantage at ITF QF level, but recent match snippets in the provided profile indicate mixed/losing form. The market price (home 1.19 => implied ~84.0%) overstates the favorite edge versus our assessed probability, so at the quoted odds there is no positive expected value. Given the lack of any provided data on Kateryna Diatlova, surface-specific form, or injury information, we are conservative and do not find value backing Sacco at 1.19.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.19) is ~84.0%, above our estimated 78% true win probability
• • Federica Sacco has extensive career experience (559-507) but recent results in provided profile show mixed/losing outings
• • No data provided on opponent Kateryna Diatlova, surface form in Heraklion, or injuries — increases uncertainty