Federica Sacco vs Zeel Desai
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Zeel Desai at 2.12 based on near-identical profiles and an estimated 50% win probability, producing ~6% expected value.
Highlights
- • Profiles and recent form are effectively matched — little to separate the players
- • Market appears to overprice the home favorite, offering value on the away underdog
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.12)
- + Simple, conservative estimate (50% true probability) yields value due to market overround
Cons
- - Limited and similar data for both players increases uncertainty in the probability estimate
- - No head-to-head, seeding, or venue advantage information in the research to reduce variance
Details
We see nearly identical profiles and recent form for Federica Sacco and Zeel Desai (both 10-21 career records, similar surfaces and recent results), so a roughly even true chance is reasonable. The market prices Sacco as favorite at 1.662 (implied ~60.1%) and Desai at 2.12 (implied ~47.2%), leaving an overround. Given lack of differentiators (no clear surface or form edge, no injuries reported), we estimate the true win probability for Desai at 50.0%. At the available price of 2.12 that yields positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 2.12 - 1 = +0.06 (6% ROI). The minimum fair decimal price for this probability is 2.000; since the market offers 2.12, we identify value on the away side while acknowledging limited information and model uncertainty.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent results, implying a roughly even matchup
- • No clear surface or injury differentiator in the provided research to justify the favorite tag
- • Current market price (2.12) for the away player is above our fair threshold (2.00) producing positive EV