Federica Urgesi vs Julia Avdeeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Avdeeva at 1.366 — our 76% win-probability model produces a +3.8% expected ROI, driven by experience and career performance gap.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Avdeeva ~73.2%; we estimate 76.0%
- • Positive but modest EV (≈+0.038 per 1.0 stake) — edge is real but limited
Pros
- + Clear experience and sample-size advantage for Avdeeva
- + Current price (1.366) exceeds our min required odds (1.316) for positive EV
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to small probability estimate errors
- - Recent challenger losses for both players introduce form uncertainty
Details
We see Avdeeva heavily favored on the market at 1.366 (implied ~73.2%). Comparing that to the available player profiles, Avdeeva's very large career sample (1066 matches, 559-507) and multi-surface experience materially reduce upset risk versus Urgesi, who has a short 31-match career (10-21) and a clear losing record. Recent match snippets show both players with losses in challenger events, but Avdeeva's depth and adaptability imply a higher true win probability than the market-implied number. We estimate Avdeeva's true win probability at 76.0%, which yields a positive expected value at the current price (EV = 0.76 * 1.366 - 1 = +0.038). The edge is small but real given the disparity in experience and win-rate history; downside risks include limited detail on current injuries/fitness and both players' recent challenger losses, which compress the margin of value.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap: Avdeeva 1066 matches vs Urgesi 31 matches
- • Career win-rate and adaptability favor Avdeeva (multi-surface history)
- • Urgesi's short career and 10-21 record indicate higher variance/upset risk