Federico Cina vs Michael Geerts
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Michael Geerts at decimal 3.00 — our 40% win estimate produces ~20% positive EV versus the market-implied 33%.
Highlights
- • Market overestimates Cina relative to career win-rate
- • Available away price (3.00) exceeds our fair odds (2.50) for Geerts
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price
- + Geerts has sufficient career/hard-court credentials to justify ~40% chance
Cons
- - Limited head-to-head and matchup specifics in the provided data
- - Cina's higher raw win-rate and favored status mean upset risk remains significant
Details
We find value on Michael Geerts (away). The market prices Federico Cina at 1.37 (implied 73.0%), which is materially higher than Cina's career win-rate (46/69 = ~66.7%) and higher than a reasonable matchup estimate after comparing both players' records and recent form. Michael Geerts has a solid career record (42-33 = ~56.8%) and recent Challenger hard-court activity, so a fair estimated probability for Geerts in this head-to-head is around 40.0%. That implies fair decimal odds of 2.50; the available price of 3.00 therefore offers positive expected value. EV calculation used: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.40 * 3.00 - 1 = 0.20 (20% ROI per unit staked). We used the quoted market price of 3.00 for the away side when computing EV.
Key factors
- • Market implies 73% for Cina which exceeds his observed career win-rate (~66.7%)
- • Geerts' career win-rate (~56.8%) and recent hard-court activity suggest a stronger chance than the market-implied 33%
- • No clear injuries or disqualifying form shown in the provided research, so discrepancy appears market-driven