Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Gadamauri (1.73) is ~57.8%, which we view as overstated
• • Iannaccone at 2.06 corresponds to positive EV versus our modelled win probability

Pros

• + Available price (2.06) sits above our fair odds threshold (1.923)
• + Iannaccone's greater match volume may translate to steadier performance on an unfamiliar surface

Cons

• - Both players have no recorded grass results, increasing variance and uncertainty
• - Recent form from both contains losses; model confidence is moderate rather than high

Details

We see both players have most of their recent experience on clay and hard courts and no recorded grass results, so surface unknowns reduce confidence. Market favors Gadamauri at 1.73 (implied win prob 57.8%), while Iannaccone is available at 2.06 (implied 48.5%). Comparing their career records and match counts from the provided profiles, their level appears similar, but Iannaccone has substantially more match volume (56 vs 44) and a nearly even win-loss record, which we view as a modest edge on a neutral/unknown surface. We estimate Iannaccone's true win probability at 52.0%, which requires minimum fair odds of 1.923; the current price of 2.06 therefore offers positive expected value. At the 2.06 price the EV = 0.52 * 2.06 - 1 = 0.071 (7.1% ROI). We prefer the home side only because the market seems to overprice Gadamauri relative to our assessment given limited grass data and Iannaccone's greater match experience.

Key factors

• • Both players lack recorded grass-court experience—surface is an uncertainty
• • Iannaccone has more match volume (56 vs 44) suggesting slightly greater readiness
• • Market favors Gadamauri at 1.73; that price implies a higher win probability than our estimate