Highlights

• • Book implied prob 84.9% vs our 72% estimate
• • Minimum fair odds ~1.389; current 1.177 offers negative EV

Pros

• + Iannaccone shows a substantially better career record and is a logical favorite
• + Qualifying matches can favor the more experienced player in matchplay and nerves

Cons

• - Both players lack grass-specific form; surface uncertainty increases downside risk
• - Current market price is too short to offer any positive expected value

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability (1/1.177 = 84.9%) to our estimate of the true win probability for Federico Iannaccone (72%). Iannaccone appears the stronger player on paper: more matches and a substantially better career win-loss record than Giannicola Misasi, so a favorite is justified. However, both players have most of their match history on clay and hard courts with little or no grass data; that uncertainty and recent mixed form reduce the confidence that Iannaccone is as close to an 85% favorite as the market implies. At our estimated 72% true win probability, the minimum fair decimal odds would be ~1.389; the current market price of 1.177 offers a negative expected value (EV = 0.72*1.177 - 1 = -0.153). Because the listed price is below the fair threshold, there is no value to backing the favorite at current odds and we therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies 84.9% for home; our model estimates ~72% — market is overpricing the favorite
• • Iannaccone has a stronger overall record (29-27 vs 12-23) but most matches were on clay/hard, not grass
• • Both players have limited or no documented grass form, increasing uncertainty and variance