Federico Arnaboldi vs Stefano Napolitano

Highlights

• • Current odds for Arnaboldi (2.35) exceed our fair odds (~2.273).
• • Both players show weak recent form; Arnaboldi's larger match volume supports a modest edge.

Pros

• + Market overprices Napolitano relative to the limited evidence of superiority.
• + Arnaboldi's greater recent match experience reduces uncertainty on clay.

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ~3.4%) and based on limited, mixed-form data.
• - Both players have poor recent results, increasing upset risk and variance.

Details

The market prices Stefano Napolitano at 1.57 (implied ~63.7%) and Federico Arnaboldi at 2.35 (implied ~42.6%), but the underlying data in the research does not show a large gap in form or surface advantage. Arnaboldi has a slightly higher career sample (51 matches, 18-33, ~35.3% win rate) versus Napolitano's smaller sample (21 matches, 7-14, ~33.3%); both players show recent losing results. Given likely clay conditions in Biella, Arnaboldi's greater match volume and marginally better long-term win rate reduce the favorite’s edge. We estimate Arnaboldi's true win probability at 44.0%, which implies fair odds of ~2.273; the offered 2.35 therefore contains small positive value. At p=0.44 and odds 2.35 EV = 0.44*2.35 - 1 = +0.034 (3.4% ROI). This is a low-to-medium edge reflecting limited and mixed data, but it meets the value threshold against the current market price.

Key factors

• • Market implies Napolitano ~63.7% but research shows similar win rates and recent losses for both
• • Arnaboldi has a larger match sample and marginally better long-term win rate (18-33 vs 7-14)
• • Likely clay conditions in Biella where both have experience, reducing a clear surface bias
• • Napolitano's smaller sample and recent high-level losses suggest greater volatility than market pricing
• • The margin in odds leaves a small positive edge when we estimate Arnaboldi at ~44%