Felipe Pinzon Moreno vs Mainguy. Clement
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend betting; the favorite (Felipe) is priced too short relative to our conservative 60% win estimate, producing a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Our fair price for Felipe is ~1.667 (60% win probability); market is 1.44
- • Negative expected value at current odds: -0.136 per unit staked
Pros
- + Felipe has recent match activity on hard courts with strong first-serve win metrics
- + Market consensus favors Felipe, so staking would be against public sentiment if targeting the underdog
Cons
- - Extremely limited data and no information provided on Mainguy Clement, increasing uncertainty
- - Quoted favorite price (1.44) offers no value against our probability estimate
Details
We estimate Felipe Pinzon Moreno's true win probability at ~60% based on the limited data available (two recent hard-court matches, 1-1 record, strong 1st-serve win rates shown). The market currently prices him at 1.44 (implied 69.4%), which implies the market is significantly more confident than our assessment. Using our 60% probability, the fair decimal price would be ~1.667; at the quoted 1.44 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.60*1.44 - 1 = -0.136). Given the extremely thin sample size for Felipe, no information on Mainguy Clement in the provided research, and the market's apparent favoritism without supporting data, we do not find value on either side at current prices and therefore do not recommend a wager.
Key factors
- • Very limited sample size for Felipe (two recorded matches) making estimates noisy
- • Both recorded matches were on hard courts, which aligns with this event surface
- • Market strongly favors the home player (1.44) more than our conservative estimate