Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas vs Suana Tucakovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a very small value on the home moneyline at 2.39 based on the away player's weak documented form; the edge is tiny and the bet carries high variance.
Highlights
- • Current home price 2.39 slightly exceeds our fair price 2.381
- • Away's documented record and recent losses suggest lower true win probability than market implies
Pros
- + Small positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Market may be overvaluing the away player based on limited form evidence
Cons
- - Edge is extremely small (≈0.38% ROI) and could be erased by missing information
- - High variance single-match outcome and limited data on the home player increases risk
Details
We believe the market overstates Suana Tucakovic's win probability given her documented 10-21 career record and recent poor results on the available match list. The away price (1.503) implies a 66.5% win probability, which is difficult to reconcile with the limited performance information. With limited public information about Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas in the provided research, we conservatively estimate the home player has a 42.0% chance to win; that probability implies a fair decimal price of 2.381. The current home price of 2.39 is marginally better than our fair price and yields a small positive EV (0.38% ROI) at the quoted market odds. Given the very small edge and high variance of a single match, this is a speculative, high-risk value opportunity rather than a robust play.
Key factors
- • Away player has a 10-21 career record with recent losses in higher-level events (signals weak recent form)
- • Market implies a 66.5% chance for the away player (1.503) which appears generous vs available form data
- • Home price (2.39) is marginally above our fair threshold (2.381), creating a tiny positive edge