Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas vs Viktoria Veleva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the home favourite at 1.24 under conservative assumptions (estimated win probability 83%), but the advantage is modest and uncertainty is high due to lack of match-specific data.
Highlights
- • Market price implies ~80.6% win chance; we estimate 83%
- • Estimated EV about +2.9% on a 1-unit stake at 1.24
Pros
- + Small positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Favored player reduces variance relative to toss-up matches
Cons
- - Very limited information (no form, surface, injury, or H2H data) increases model risk
- - Edge is modest — vulnerable to small estimation errors
Details
We compare the market price (home 1.24 => implied probability 80.6%) to a conservative estimated true probability of 83%. With no external research returned, we adopt conservative assumptions favoring the strong market favorite but allow a small margin above implied probability to account for potential home/seed/favorite advantages. At our estimated true probability (0.83) the home line of 1.24 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.83 * 1.24 - 1 = 0.0292). Uncertainty is material due to absence of form, surface, injury, and H2H data, so the edge is modest and should be treated cautiously.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1/1.24 = 80.6%) vs our conservative true estimate (83%)
- • No external research returned — high information uncertainty
- • Favorite status and typical lower-variance outcome for heavy favourites