Highlights

• • De Minaur slight edge on career data and recent US Open form
• • Current favorite price (1.714) fails to clear our minimum fair odds (1.786) for positive EV

Pros

• + Match-up on hard court suits both players; not a one-sided surface advantage
• + Market reflects expected closeness; no glaring pricing inefficiency

Cons

• - Available odds for the favorite are slightly too short to offer positive EV against our estimate
• - Limited actionable edge from provided data (no H2H or injury detail to swing probability)

Details

We assess this as a close hard-court matchup with a slight edge to Alex De Minaur based on available career win-loss profiles and recent comparable US Open form. The market prices De Minaur at 1.714 (implied ~58.3%) and Auger-Aliassime at 2.20 (implied ~45.5%) — a market margin of ~3.8%. Our read of the provided data gives De Minaur an estimated true win probability of ~56.0% on hard courts against this opponent; that implies fair odds of ~1.786. At the current De Minaur price (1.714) EV = 0.56 * 1.714 - 1 ≈ -0.04, which is negative. Auger-Aliassime would need to be priced ≥2.174 (if we believed his true win probability ~46.0%) to offer value; current 2.20 is marginal but our conservative model does not push his true win probability above the market-implied threshold. With no injury or H2H data to materially shift probabilities, the market prices do not present positive expected value for either side based on our estimate, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Surface: outdoor hard where both players have long experience and similar recent form
• • Career records slightly favor De Minaur (higher win percentage overall) in the provided profiles
• • Market-implied probability for De Minaur (58.3%) exceeds our estimated true probability (56%), producing negative EV