Felix Corwin vs Nikolay Vylegzhanin

Highlights

• • Market-implied favorite at ~60.8% seems overstated given similar profiles
• • Lack of grass experience for both players reduces predictive clarity and benefits the higher-priced underdog

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.20)
• + Underdog pricing compensates for uncertainty around grass-court translation

Cons

• - Limited confidence due to both players' sparse/no grass record and mixed recent form
• - Edge is small — sensitive to moderate shifts in true probability or market odds

Details

We view this matchup as much closer than the market implies. The away player (Nikolay Vylegzhanin) is priced at 1.645 (implied ~60.8%), but career records and recent form for both players are very similar (roughly 30–31 wins, mid-20s losses) and neither profile shows meaningful grass-court experience. Given the lack of grass history, recent mixed/losing form for both, and no clear H2H edge, we estimate the true win probability for Felix Corwin (home) is ~48%. At the available decimal price of 2.20 this produces a small positive edge (EV ≈ 0.056 per unit). The value arises because the market appears to be over-favoring the away player relative to the uncertainty introduced by the grass surface and similar player levels. We acknowledge limited data and downgrade confidence accordingly.

Key factors

• • Neither player has documented grass-court experience, increasing uncertainty and pushing the matchup toward coin-flip territory
• • Career records and recent results are very similar, suggesting a tight baseline skill level
• • Market favors the away player strongly (1.645) despite few clear differentiators — creating value on the higher-priced underdog