Highlights

• • Felix Gill is the clear market favorite but priced too short for value
• • Required fair odds for Gill to be +EV are ≈1.429 or longer

Pros

• + Gill has a slightly stronger win-loss record in the provided data
• + Match played on a surface both players are familiar with (clay), reducing matchup uncertainty

Cons

• - Current price (1.30) implies an outsized probability that we do not support
• - Insufficient additional information (H2H, recent complete form) to justify upgrading our probability estimate

Details

The market prices Felix Gill at 1.30 (implied win probability 76.9%). From the provided profiles both players are clay specialists with similar ITF-level experience and comparable records (Gill 24-11, Milic 22-14). Gill is a reasonable favorite, but the quoted price requires him to be substantially superior (≈77% win chance) to be profitable. Given the available information — similar surface histories, no clear injury or head-to-head edge, and modest sample sizes — we estimate Gill's true win probability at 70%. At that true probability the expected value at 1.30 is negative (0.70 * 1.30 - 1 = -0.09), so the current price offers no value. We therefore recommend no bet unless the market offers at least ~1.429 on Gill (or a longer price on an alternative line that represents value).

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.30 = 76.9%) exceeds our estimated win probability (70%)
• • Both players have similar clay experience and records at ITF level — no decisive edge
• • No injury reports or matchup data in the research to justify a >76% true probability