Fernanda Rain Contreras / Rebecca Marino vs Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market overprices the away pair; given the similar poor recent form in the supplied profiles and missing data on Contreras, we estimate the home pair at ~36% and find positive EV at 4.5.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability: ~83.9% (1.192) — seems overstated given the research
- • Home fair price (based on our estimate): ~2.78; market offers 4.5 → positive EV
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between our conservative true probability and market price yields a sizable EV (+0.62 ROI on a 1-unit stake)
- + Market favoritism appears unsupported by the limited recent-form data supplied
Cons
- - Limited and incomplete data (no information on Fernanda Rain Contreras) increases uncertainty
- - Doubles outcomes can be highly variable; small samples and lack of H2H or surface context raise variance
Details
We find clear market overconfidence in the away pair (Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi) — the book prices imply ~83.9% win probability (1/1.192) while the underlying form data provided does not support such dominance. All available player profiles (Marino, Olmos, Sutjiadi) show poor recent win-loss records (roughly 10-22), and Marino’s recent results are weak; there is no information on Fernanda Rain Contreras in the supplied research to indicate a severe weakness on the home side. Given similar recent form across the listed players and uncertainty about Contreras (which increases variance), we estimate the home pair’s true win probability around 36%. At that probability the fair decimal price for the home side is ~2.778; the market’s 4.5 therefore offers significant value. Using the current home odds (4.5) the expected value is positive (EV = 0.36*4.5 - 1 = +0.62), so we recommend backing the home doubles team at current prices. We note high variance and limited dataset, so the edge is opportunistic rather than low-risk.
Key factors
- • Market implies a very large away probability (~83.9%) that is not supported by the provided recent-form data
- • All provided player profiles (Marino, Olmos, Sutjiadi) show weak recent records (~10-22), narrowing the expected gap between sides
- • No data on Fernanda Rain Contreras increases uncertainty and skews value toward the underdog when the market heavily favors the opponent