Fernanda Rain Contreras / Rebecca Marino vs Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing the underdog home doubles team at 4.81 because the market appears to overstate the favorites' certainty; our model estimates a 30% true win chance vs. a 20.8% break-even threshold.
Highlights
- • Current market implies ~84% for the away side; we view this as overstated
- • Home side required odds for break-even (3.333) are well below offered 4.81
Pros
- + Large margin between our fair price and the market price creates significant theoretical EV
- + Limited data on the home pairing increases the chance of market mispricing
Cons
- - Research on the favored pairing shows them as established players—market may be reflecting real doubles expertise not captured in the limited data
- - High uncertainty and sparse doubles-specific stats (especially for Contreras) make this a speculative value play
Details
We see the market pricing the Olmos/Sutjiadi pair as an ~84% favorite (1.189 decimal) which requires them to be overwhelmingly superior. The research available shows both Olmos and Sutjiadi with modest recent results and several recent losses at challenger events; Marino also has a weak recent singles record and there is no data on Fernanda Rain Contreras in the provided materials, increasing uncertainty around the match. Given limited information and clear signs of vulnerability on the favored side, we believe the market is overestimating the away team's win probability. Concretely, the implied break-even probability for the home side at current odds (4.81) is 20.8% (1/4.81). We estimate the true probability of the home pair winning at 30.0%, which yields positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 4.81 - 1 = 0.443). At that estimated probability, the minimum fair decimal price is 3.333, well below the offered 4.81, so the home side represents value under our assessment. We acknowledge high uncertainty due to limited doubles-specific and Contreras data, so this pick carries elevated risk despite the favorable EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Away team quoted at very short odds (1.189) implying >84% win chance
- • Both Olmos and Sutjiadi show recent losses and modest win-loss records in provided research
- • No performance data provided for Fernanda Rain Contreras increases market uncertainty and upside for the underdog