Fernanda Rain Contreras / Rebecca Marino vs Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi

Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability is ~89.5%, which the provided player data does not support
• • At our estimate (18%) the home line 8.02 yields a positive EV (~0.444 per unit)

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market-implied probability and our conservative estimated probability creates clear numerical value
• + All available player profiles show similar win rates, undermining the heavy favorite pricing

Cons

• - Fernanda Rain Contreras lacks a provided profile, increasing uncertainty around the home pairing's true level
• - Small sample and limited information on doubles chemistry and recent match context heighten variance — result is high volatility

Details

We believe the market price (Away 1.118 / Home 8.02) overstates the away pairing's likelihood. The three players with available profiles (Rebecca Marino, Giuliana Olmos, Aldila Sutjiadi) show very similar career win rates in the referenced span (roughly 31–32%), and recent match logs indicate losing runs for both Olmos and Sutjiadi. Marino's record is comparable, and while Fernanda Rain Contreras lacks a profile in the provided research (introducing uncertainty), there is not enough evidence in the supplied data to justify an ~89.5% chance for the away side. Conservatively estimating the home pair's true win probability at 18% (much higher than the market-implied 12.47%), the home price of 8.02 gives positive expected value. Calculation: estimated_true_probability = 0.18; min_required_decimal_odds = 1/0.18 = 5.556; EV at current odds (8.02) = 0.18 * 8.02 - 1 = 0.444. We use the publicly-quoted current away/home prices and the players' comparable recent win rates to argue the market is likely overconfident in the away side, creating value on the home underdog at available prices.

Key factors

• • Quoted market implies away win probability ~89.5% which is much higher than supported by the players' comparable recent win rates (~31–32%)
• • Both Olmos and Sutjiadi show recent losing form in the provided logs; Marino's form is similar to them rather than markedly worse
• • Lack of profile data for Fernanda Rain Contreras increases uncertainty and suggests the market may be over-reliant on perceived favorites rather than objective parity