Filip Cristian Jianu vs Maximilian Neuchrist
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on the favorite at 1.45 — our estimated win probability for Jianu (~58%) is well below the market-implied ~69%, producing a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Bookmarket prices favor Jianu strongly (1.45) but implied probability is higher than our estimate.
- • Experience and event level suggest Jianu is competent, but not enough to justify the current price.
Pros
- + Jianu has extensive match experience and recent Challenger-level play (positive for form on bigger stages).
- + Match likely on clay, a surface both players have recent experience on — reduces extreme surprise risk.
Cons
- - Book implied probability (≈69%) materially exceeds our estimated true probability (58%).
- - Neuchrist's higher raw win-rate in available records (small sample) and recent wins reduce the favorite's edge.
Details
We compare the market price (Filip Cristian Jianu 1.45 → implied ~68.97%) to our assessment. Jianu has far greater match volume and recent Challenger-level activity, which suggests experience and possible home/surface comfort, but his long-term win rate (293-222 → ~56.9%) is lower than Maximilian Neuchrist's smaller-sample win rate (39-22 → ~63.9%). Neuchrist's results come from lower-level M25 events while Jianu has recent Challenger matches, so we discount Neuchrist's higher raw win percentage for level-of-play differences. On balance we estimate Jianu's true win probability at ~58.0%, materially below the market-implied ~69%, which yields a negative expected value at the quoted 1.45. Therefore there is no value to back the 1.45 favorite — the market appears to overprice Jianu relative to our assessment.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.45 → ~68.97%) vs our estimate (58%)
- • Experience and event level: Jianu at Challenger-level recently vs Neuchrist at M25
- • Small-sample distortion for Neuchrist's higher win-rate and parity in recent clay results