Highlights

• • Market implies ~78.1% for Jianu (1.28); our fair estimate ~70%
• • Required fair price for value on Jianu: ~1.429

Pros

• + Home player has much larger career sample and Challenger experience
• + Both players are comfortable on clay, reducing surface surprises

Cons

• - Compagnucci's good recent win rate in a smaller sample raises upset potential
• - Current favorite price is too short to offer positive expected value

Details

We estimate Filip Cristian Jianu is the clear favorite based on experience and volume of matches, but the market price (1.28) implies a ~78.1% chance and we do not find sufficient evidence to push our true probability that high. Jianu's career win rate (~57%) and recent Challenger-level activity suggest he is favored versus Tommaso Compagnucci, but Compagnucci's strong win percentage in a smaller sample and both players' clay experience reduce the gap. Given our conservative true probability of 70% for Jianu, the fair decimal price would be ~1.429; at the current 1.28 there is no positive expected value, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Jianu's larger career sample and consistent Challenger-level play
• • Compagnucci's higher small-sample win rate makes upset plausible
• • Current market price implies an outsized probability (78%) that we cannot justify