Filip Jeff Planinsek vs Franco Roncadelli

Highlights

• • Market price for Planinsek (1.60) implies 62.5% — we estimate 65.9%
• • Edge is modest but positive given the provided records and recent clay activity

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge based on the supplied win-loss records
• + Favourite priced moderately (not overly tight), allowing a measurable ROI

Cons

• - Sample sizes are limited and dates in the research are recent but sparse
• - No head-to-head, detailed injury, or in-event conditions provided — increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Filip Jeff Planinsek is slightly undervalued by the market. Planinsek's recorded win rate in the provided data is 27/41 (≈65.9%), while the moneyline 1.60 implies a win probability of 62.5% (1/1.60). Using the provided career records and recent clay activity for both players, our best estimate for Planinsek's true probability to win is 65.9%, which yields positive expected value at the current price: EV = 0.659 * 1.60 - 1 = +0.054 (≈+5.4% ROI). Franco Roncadelli's provided win rate (33/58 ≈56.9%) is lower than Planinsek's and is priced at 2.20 (implied 45.5%); when adjusting both players to a two-player contest the residual probability for Roncadelli makes him a non-value pick at 2.20 given our Planinsek estimate. Key caveats are limited sample sizes, potential surface/context differences and lack of H2H or injury detail in the provided data, so the edge is modest but present at the quoted 1.60.

Key factors

• • Planinsek's higher observed win rate in provided data (27-14, 65.9%)
• • Both players have recent clay matches, but Planinsek's form and win rate give him the edge
• • Market implied probability (62.5% at 1.60) is below our estimated true probability (65.9%), creating value