Filip Peliwo vs Tai Leonard Sach
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Peliwo looks likely to win but the 1.15 price is too short versus our ~78% estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~87% for Peliwo; our estimate ~78%
- • Insufficient opponent data to justify heavy favorite pricing
Pros
- + Peliwo has a positive career record and hard-court experience
- + Market strongly favors the home player, reflecting perceived quality gap
Cons
- - Price 1.15 requires an extremely high true win probability (>86.96%) to be +EV
- - Research lacks opponent info and detailed recent form/h2h, increasing uncertainty
Details
We compared the offered market price (Filip Peliwo 1.15) to our read of his win probability based on the limited research provided. The available profile shows a solid 40-27 (≈59.7%) recent career record with hard-court play noted, but no head-to-head or any detailed information on the opponent Tai Leonard Sach was supplied. The market is pricing Peliwo at an implied win probability of ~86.96% (1.15 decimal). Given the lack of opponent data and mixed recent match snippets, we estimate Peliwo's true win probability at 78.0%, well below the market-implied 86.96%, so the favorite price contains no positive expected value. Therefore we recommend no bet at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.15) >> our estimated true probability (78%)
- • Research contains only Peliwo profile; no opponent form/h2h to justify heavy favorite pricing
- • Surface noted as hard and Peliwo has experience, but not enough to justify >86% market price