Filip Peliwo vs Tai Sach
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend the home side (Filip Peliwo) because our estimated win probability (91%) exceeds the market-implied probability at 1.17, producing a positive EV (~6.5%).
Highlights
- • Clear experience and results advantage for Peliwo
- • Current market price (1.17) appears to understate Peliwo's win chance
Pros
- + Substantial match history and better record on hard courts
- + Market price offers a positive expected value using conservative probability estimate
Cons
- - Research lacks head-to-head and event-specific variables (court speed, exact conditions)
- - Tai's tiny sample size adds uncertainty—upset risk exists despite low probability
Details
We view Filip Peliwo as a clear favorite based on the provided player profiles: Peliwo has a meaningful sample (67 matches, 40-27) and documented play on hard courts, while Tai Sach has only one recorded professional match (0-1) and no demonstrated track record on hard. The market price of 1.17 implies a win probability of about 85.5%, but given the experience and form differential in the Research we estimate Peliwo's true win probability materially higher (we use 91%). At decimal 1.17 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.91 * 1.17 - 1 ≈ +0.065). There is uncertainty because Tai is a very small-sample player and match-level factors (fitness, travel, court speed at Tamworth) are not detailed, but the information provided supports a value bet on the home player at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Experience gap: Peliwo 67 matches (40-27) vs Tai 1 match (0-1)
- • Surface alignment: both listed on hard but only Peliwo has sustained hard-court history
- • Market-implied probability (1/1.17 ≈ 85.5%) is below our estimated true probability (91%)
- • Small-sample uncertainty for Tai increases variance despite clear favorite