Filip Cristian Jianu vs Stefan Palosi

Highlights

• • Market overweights the home tag: Jianu implied 69.6% but career record is worse than Palosi's
• • Current away odds (2.89) exceed our fair threshold (2.381), giving ~21% ROI on our estimate

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge in career win rate and recent match-level serving metrics for Palosi
• + Significant margin between market odds and our estimated fair odds

Cons

• - Surface listed as grass could favor Jianu; the research shows mixed surface histories and limited surface-specific data
• - No direct head-to-head information provided; some uncertainty remains in matchup dynamics

Details

The market prices Filip Cristian Jianu as a strong favorite (implied ~69.6%) at 1.437 while Stefan Palosi is priced at 2.89 (implied ~34.6%). Our read of the provided profiles shows Palosi with a markedly better career win-loss record (36-23, ~61% win rate) versus Jianu (36-38, ~48.6%), and recent tournament wins for both. Surface is listed as grass, where Jianu has some experience but Palosi's superior overall form and recent high first-serve/winning percentages in the event suggest he is underpriced by the market. Conservatively we estimate Palosi's true chance at 42.0% — materially above the market-implied 34.6% — which produces positive expected value at the current away price of 2.89. The minimum fair decimal price to break even on our probability is ~2.381, so the current 2.89 represents surplus value. We prefer the away side because the price differential is large and backed by clear win-rate and recent-performance indicators, while remaining mindful of uncertainty around surface-specific form and limited head-to-head data.

Key factors

• • Palosi has a substantially better career win-loss record (36-23 vs 36-38)
• • Market implies Palosi only ~34.6% while our read assigns ~42% — pricing gap creates value
• • Both players advanced in the same Challenger event recently, but Palosi's recent serve/1st-serve metrics in the research suggest form advantage