Highlights

• • Market-heavy favorite (Zeppieri 1.12) likely overstates true win likelihood
• • Peliwo’s win-rate and hard-court activity justify a higher probability than implied by 5.75

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Peliwo has a larger match sample and slightly better recorded win rate in the provided data

Cons

• - Underdog tennis outcomes are high-variance; lines can reflect matchup specifics not in provided data
• - No H2H or detailed match-level form provided to refine the probability estimate

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to a conservative estimate of true win chances based on the provided profiles. The market prices Zeppieri at 1.12 (≈89.3% implied) and Peliwo at 5.75 (≈17.4% implied). The research shows both players with similar recent records and hard-court experience: Peliwo has a slightly higher career win rate over a larger match sample (44-27) and documented hard-court activity; Zeppieri has a comparable win rate (28-20) and also plays hard. Given the parity in records and surfaces and no injury information, the market’s ~17.4% chance for Peliwo looks too low. We conservatively estimate Peliwo’s true win probability at 20% (0.20). At the quoted price of 5.75 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.20*5.75 - 1 = 0.15), so the home underdog represents value versus the public price. This recommendation is conservative and rests on the assumption that the heavy favorite price (1.12) overstates Zeppieri’s chances relative to available form and surface data.

Key factors

• • Market implies only ~17.4% for Peliwo at 5.75, which appears too low given comparable career records
• • Peliwo has a slightly better win record across a larger sample and documented hard-court activity
• • No injury or withdrawal information in the provided research; both show recent activity in Shanghai