Highlights

• • Peliwo considerably stronger by record and form on hard courts
• • Current market price requires an implausibly high true win probability (>88%) to be +EV

Pros

• + Peliwo is the logical expected winner given form and sample sizes
• + Low variance outcome if true probabilities are accurate (favorite-heavy match)

Cons

• - Bookmaker odds are too short to offer positive EV
• - Limited direct head-to-head data and some small-sample noise in recent results

Details

We estimate Filip Peliwo is clearly the stronger player on paper (much higher career win rate and better recent form on hard courts) and the market price (home 1.13) reflects that. However, the bookmaker-implied probability (about 88.5%) is materially higher than our estimated true win probability for Peliwo. Using available career records (Peliwo 44-27, Court 3-13), surface matchup (both have hard-court history but Peliwo has many more wins), and recent form, we estimate Peliwo's true win probability around 82%. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be roughly 1.220; the current 1.13 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.82*1.13 - 1 ≈ -0.073). Therefore there is no value at current prices and we do not recommend betting either side.

Key factors

• • Large disparity in career win rates and match volume favoring Peliwo
• • Both players have hard-court experience but Peliwo has superior recent results
• • Bookmaker price implies a win probability (~88.5%) substantially above our estimate (~82%)