Filip Peliwo vs Joshua Charlton
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive edge on Filip Peliwo at 1.265 based on his stronger season record and hard-court form; the bet offers modest value (≈3.7% EV).
Highlights
- • Peliwo: 44-27 season record and frequent hard-court play
- • Market implies ~79% but we estimate ~82% for Peliwo
Pros
- + Clear season-level performance gap in favor of Peliwo
- + Current price (1.265) converts to a small positive expected value using conservative probability
Cons
- - Edge is small — limited margin for error in the probability estimate
- - No detailed head-to-head or up-to-the-minute injury updates in the provided data
Details
We compare the market price (Filip Peliwo 1.265, implied 79.1%) to our assessment based on the provided profiles. Peliwo has a substantially better season record (44-27) and heavier match volume on hard courts compared with Charlton (16-22), and recent results in the research indicate stronger form for Peliwo on hard courts. Given those inputs, we estimate Peliwo's true win probability at 82.0%. At the quoted decimal 1.265 this implies EV = 0.82 * 1.265 - 1 = +0.037 (≈3.7% ROI per unit). The market price (1.265) therefore offers a small positive edge versus our probability model. We account for a modest bookmaker overround and limited direct H2H data, so our probability is conservative.
Key factors
- • Peliwo's superior season win-loss record (44-27) vs Charlton (16-22)
- • Both players have recent activity on hard courts; Peliwo shows stronger recent form in the provided data
- • Market-implied probability (≈79.1%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (82%), producing value