Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Moroni: ~63.8%; our estimate: 58%
• • Required decimal to gain value on Moroni: ≥1.724 (market 1.568)

Pros

• + Moroni has a strong overall win-loss record (37-16) which explains market favoritism
• + Brady's grass experience is limited but present, increasing upset potential

Cons

• - Moroni has no recorded grass matches in the supplied data — unknown surface translation risk
• - Small sample sizes and limited head-to-head info increase outcome variance

Details

The market prices Filippo Moroni as the clear favorite at 1.568 (implied ~63.8%). After adjusting for surface and recent form we estimate Moroni's true win probability at 58%. Moroni has a superior overall record but no recorded grass matches in the provided data and some recent defeats on hard; Patrick Brady has explicit grass experience albeit on a smaller sample. The market appears to over-rate Moroni on raw season win-rate without fully accounting for surface and Brady's grass exposure, so neither side offers positive expected value at the posted prices. Using our probability (0.58) against the home moneyline (1.568) yields a negative EV (-0.091 for a 1-unit stake). To extract value you'd need Moroni priced at ~1.724 or higher (or Brady at lower odds than 2.36 if we re-estimate his win probability above ~42.4%). Given the uncertainty (small samples, limited head-to-head and surface mismatch), we prefer to pass.

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass — Moroni has no recorded grass matches in provided data; Brady does
• • Form/sample: Moroni has more matches and a stronger overall record but recent results show losses; Brady has fewer matches but demonstrated grass participation
• • Market pricing: implied probability for Moroni (~63.8%) exceeds our surface-adjusted estimate (58%), removing value