Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Busciola: 22%
• • Minimum fair odds needed: 4.545; current odds 5.6 -> value exists

Pros

• + Substantial positive EV at current market price
• + Market heavily favors Ying Hou, which can lead to undervaluing the underdog

Cons

• - No surface, form, injury or H2H information was available — high uncertainty
• - Large market favorite means outcome may still be likely against the underdog despite value

Details

The market prices Ying Hou as a heavy favorite (implied ~88.5%) while Filippo Busciola is a 5.6-priced underdog (implied ~17.9%). With no external data returned, we apply a conservative adjustment to the market to account for information uncertainty and typical overpricing of overwhelming favorites in lower-profile matches. We estimate Busciola's true win probability at 22% (vs market-implied ~17.9%), producing positive value on the 5.6 quote. Calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.22 * 5.6 - 1 = 0.232 (23.2% ROI). The market juice appears meaningful, and the current odds (5.6) exceed our minimum fair odds (4.545), so we identify value on the home underdog. Key caveats: no surface, form, injury, or H2H data were available, so our probability includes a conservative uplift for the underdog to reflect potential market overpricing of the favorite.

Key factors

• • Market implies Ying Hou win ~88.5% while home implied ~17.9%
• • No external data returned — we apply a conservative adjustment to underdog probability
• • Current home odds (5.6) exceed our minimum fair odds (4.545), creating value