Highlights

• • Market implies Home ~51.7% and Away ~55.6%
• • Our model estimates Home win probability at 53.0%, justifying a small edge at 1.935

Pros

• + Slightly better career win rate for Finn Bass versus Ben Jones
• + Both players show similar recent form, reducing likelihood of a clear market edge for Ben

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ≈ 2.6%), so outcome variance is high
• - Limited matchup-specific data (no H2H, injury or detailed surface split) increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home 1.935 -> 51.7%, Away 1.80 -> 55.6%) to our estimate of true chances. Based only on the provided player profiles, Finn Bass shows a modestly stronger career win rate than Ben Jones (55-86 vs 60-119) and both have recent mixed form, but nothing to suggest Ben is a clear favorite. Both have experience on multiple surfaces including clay, so no surface disadvantage is evident. We judge the market is slightly overpricing Ben Jones at 1.80 and underpricing Finn Bass at 1.935. We estimate Finn Bass's true win probability at 53.0%, which is greater than the market-implied 51.7% for the 1.935 quote (odds_used_for_ev = 1.935), producing a small positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Finn Bass has a modestly better career win rate than Ben Jones
• • Recent short-term form is comparable between the two (mixed win/loss results)
• • Market-implied probability slightly favors Ben, which appears conservative given the career records