Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability 52.4% vs our 57% estimate
• • Positive EV at current away price (1.91)

Pros

• + Away player has more hard-court experience and larger sample size
• + Current price offers a clear positive EV under our projection

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses; form is not strongly decisive
• - No head-to-head or injury info provided — uncertainty remains

Details

We see value on Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong (away). The market prices are tight (home 1.80 implied 55.6%, away 1.91 implied 52.4%) with an overall book overround (~7.9%). Based on the provided profiles, Mitsuki has a larger sample size (60 matches vs 25) and a slightly better overall record (31-29 vs 11-14), and is primarily a hard-court player — the match is in Bali (hard). Fitriadi’s recent form in Bali/hard shows losses in August, while Mitsuki has more consistent hard-court experience despite recent losses. We estimate Mitsuki’s true win probability at 57.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 52.4% for 1.91. Using the current away price (odds used for EV = 1.91) yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.089 per 1 unit stake). We therefore recommend the away side as a value bet at the quoted price, while noting moderate uncertainty due to limited direct head-to-head information and both players having recent losses.

Key factors

• • Mitsuki has larger match sample and marginally better win-rate (31-29 vs 11-14)
• • Surface: match in Bali likely hard — Mitsuki is predominantly a hard-court player
• • Recent form: Fitriadi recorded recent losses in Bali/hard, reducing his short-term edge