Highlights

• • Market implies ~83.3% for Max; we estimate ~88%
• • Projected EV about +5.6% at the quoted 1.20 price

Pros

• + Clear comparative edge in the provided win-loss records and surface specialization
• + Short price reduces variance and still offers positive expected return per our estimate

Cons

• - Margin of value is modest; small changes in the probability estimate remove the edge
• - Lower-tier matches can have higher upset risk and incomplete information (injury/H2H not provided)

Details

The market prices Max Basing at 1.20 (implied ~83.3%). From the supplied profiles, Max has a substantially stronger record on hard courts (18-6 overall, surfaces listed as Hard) versus Fitriadi (11-14, mixed surfaces but including Hard). Recent form in the research also favors Max. We estimate Max's true win probability at 88% based on comparative win-loss form on hard courts, consistency in recent matches, and the clear quality gap in the provided records. Comparing our 88% view to the market's ~83.3% implies positive expected value: EV = 0.88 * 1.20 - 1 = +0.056 (5.6% ROI). Given the heavy favorite status, variance is lower than an underdog pick but not negligible in lower-tier events; nevertheless the current price appears to be slightly soft on Max and offers value.

Key factors

• • Max Basing superior overall record (18-6) and listed as a hard-court player
• • Fitriadi has losing record (11-14) and mixed surfaces; recent results in research show struggles
• • Market implied probability (≈83.3%) is below our conservative estimate of Max's win chance (88%)