Highlights

• • Underdog price 3.20 exceeds our min required odds (3.03) based on a conservative 33% win estimate
• • EV is positive but modest (≈5.6%); take as a small-value play, not a strong certainty

Pros

• + Current odds offer measurable positive EV under conservative assumptions
• + Market vig and low-information setting increase likelihood of soft lines

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, injuries, form, H2H) to support the estimate — higher uncertainty
• - EV margin is small; outcome variance in a single match is high

Details

We compared the bookmaker prices (Home 1.32 -> implied 75.8%; Away 3.20 -> implied 31.25%) against a conservative, information-sparse assessment. With no surface, injury, form or H2H data available we adopt a cautious estimate that the underdog (Adrien Burdet) has a ~33.0% chance to win — slightly above the 31.25% break-even threshold for the 3.20 price and above the minimum probability required to obtain positive EV. Using that estimate the expected value is small but positive: EV = 0.33 * 3.20 - 1 = 0.056 (5.6% ROI). The market also embeds a visible vig (implied probabilities sum >100%), which increases the chance of soft value on the underdog in matches with limited public information.

Key factors

• • No external data on surface, injuries, recent form or H2H — we use a conservative estimate
• • Bookmakers imply 31.25% for the away side; our conservative true probability is 33.0% giving a small edge
• • Market vig inflates favorite prices; underdogs can carry exploitable value in low-information matches