Florent Bax vs Adrien Gobat
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on Florent Bax at 1.562 based on his stronger career record and higher sample size, with expected value ≈+3.1% per unit.
Highlights
- • Bax’s career win rate materially higher than Gobat’s
- • Current price (1.562) implies 64.0% — our estimate 66.0% gives positive EV
Pros
- + Clear quality gap in career records and sample size favoring Bax
- + Price offers a small but positive expected value per unit
Cons
- - Both players lack documented grass results — outcome more uncertain
- - Edge is small; variance in qualifiers and surface unfamiliarity make this medium-risk
Details
The book price for Florent Bax (1.562 -> implied 64.0%) slightly undervalues his advantage when we factor his much larger sample and superior overall win rate. Bax has a 46-23 career record (≈66.7% win rate) versus Adrien Gobat's 20-20 (50.0%), indicating a clear quality gap at this level. Both players lack documented grass form, so we conservatively reduce the edge for surface uncertainty, but Bax's greater match volume and steadier record still justify a modest true probability above the market-implied level. With our estimated true probability of 66.0% vs the market implied 64.0%, the current decimal price of 1.562 offers small positive expected value (≈+0.031 per unit staked). We see limited injury/availability concerns and no H2H to contradict this stance, but the grass unknown and qualifier context keep this a moderate-risk, small-edge play.
Key factors
- • Florent Bax career win rate 46-23 (~66.7%) vs Adrien Gobat 20-20 (50.0%)
- • Both players have little/no documented grass experience — increases variance
- • Higher match volume and consistency favor Bax in qualifiers context
- • Market-implied probability (64.0%) is slightly below our estimate (66.0%)