Florent Bax vs Etienne Donnet
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value identified: both players are priced equally but available evidence suggests a roughly 50% chance for each, so current odds (1.877) are too short to offer positive EV.
Highlights
- • Implied break-even probability at current odds: ~53.3%
- • Our assessed probability: 50.0% → negative EV at current price
Pros
- + Both players have solid overall win records in the provided data
- + Market is balanced (identical odds), so any edge would be purely informational
Cons
- - No grass-specific form for either player in the research provided
- - Current odds imply a higher probability than our assessment (no value)
Details
We compare the market price (both players offered at 1.877) to our assessment of the true likelihood. The break-even probability at 1.877 is ~53.3% (1/1.877). Both players have similar career win rates (Florent Bax 46-23, Etienne Donnet 30-16) and recent matches on clay/hard rather than grass; there is no clear grass-form advantage for either player in the provided data. Given the lack of grass-specific evidence and nearly identical records, we estimate the match to be essentially a 50/50 contest. At an estimated true probability of 50.0% the expected value at the current price (EV = 0.50 * 1.877 - 1) is negative (~-0.062), so neither side offers value at the listed odds. We therefore recommend not betting here unless odds rise to at least 2.00 or above.
Key factors
- • Both players have most match history on clay/hard, with no grass form shown
- • Very similar career win rates and recent results — no clear edge
- • Bookmaker-implied break-even probability (~53.3%) is above our 50% true estimate