Highlights

• • Market-implied prob (88.9%) is well below our estimated true prob (96%)
• • Large experience and form gap between players, especially on clay

Pros

• + Strong statistical and recent-form advantage for Bax
• + Current odds offer positive expected value even with conservative probability

Cons

• - Low payout on a heavy favorite — variance is small but returns are limited
• - Limited head-to-head data; rare upsets can still occur in tennis

Details

We assess clear value on Florent Bax. The market price of 1.126 implies an 88.9% win probability, but Bax's body of results (48-23 overall, strong recent wins on clay) versus Leo Lagarrigue's 0-9 record and consistent losses suggests a substantially higher true win probability. Surface exposure and recent form favor Bax heavily; there are no reported injuries in the provided research. Using a conservative true probability of 96%, the expected ROI at the available 1.126 price is positive (EV ≈ 8.1%). Because the market underprices Bax relative to his demonstrated form and opponent quality, we recommend the home side at current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Florent Bax strong overall record (48-23) and recent wins, including on clay
• • Leo Lagarrigue is 0-9 with repeated losses and no recorded wins in the provided span
• • Market odds (1.126) imply ~88.9% but our conservative true estimate is ~96%, creating positive EV