Fnatic vs GIANTX
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We estimate slight value on Fnatic at 1.654 based on a conservative 62% win probability, producing a small positive EV (~2.55%). Proceed only if comfortable with limited information and modest edge.
Highlights
- • Fnatic priced at 1.654 while our fair price is ~1.613
- • Small positive EV (~2.55%) with conservative probability estimate
Pros
- + Current odds exceed our conservative fair value
- + Home favoritism and typical league dynamics support a higher true win probability
Cons
- - No recent form/injury/H2H data available — increased uncertainty
- - Edge is small; bookmaker margin and variance can erase gains
Details
We compare the book's implied probabilities to a conservative internal estimate. The market prices Fnatic at 1.654 (implied ~60.5%) and GIANTX at 2.26 (implied ~44.2%), with a bookmaker overround of ~4.7%. With no additional external data available, we make a cautious assessment that Fnatic's true win probability is ~62.0% based on home side advantage and typical LEC favoritism for established teams. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613, so the current market price of 1.654 offers positive expected value. We acknowledge elevated uncertainty due to the lack of recent form, injury, or roster data, so our estimate is intentionally conservative. EV calculation: EV = 0.62 * 1.654 - 1 = 0.02548 (≈2.55% ROI). Because EV is positive at current widely-available prices for the home side, we recommend taking Fnatic at the listed odds while noting the small margin and additional risk from missing information.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability vs our conservative true probability estimate
- • Home team (Fnatic) presumed stronger in typical LEC contexts
- • No external injury/form/H2H data available — higher uncertainty