Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Jakub Mensik at 1.82 because his stronger recent win-rate implies a ~58% chance to win, producing a ~5.6% positive EV versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~54.95% for Mensik; we estimate ~58%
- • Positive EV of ~5.6% at the current 1.82 price
Pros
- + Clear quantitative edge from win-rate differential in the provided data
- + Both players have recent hard-court matches so surface uncertainty is limited
Cons
- - Small-one-year sample and no head-to-head or deeper match-up analytics in the research
- - US Open results in the research are mixed for both players, adding variance risk
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Jakub Mensik (1/1.82 = 54.95%) to our estimated true win probability for Mensik of 58%. Mensik's one-year sample shows a stronger win-rate (42-24, ~63.6%) than Frances Tiafoe (30-24, ~55.6%) and both players have recent hard-court results at the US Open that appear mixed, so there is no strong surface disadvantage. With no injury information in the provided research and Mensik showing the superior recent record and higher match count, we view the market as underestimating Mensik by ~3.1 percentage points. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.58 * 1.82 - 1 = 0.056 (5.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because EV > 0 at the current quoted price (1.82), we recommend betting the away side.
Key factors
- • Mensik's superior win-loss record in the provided one-year sample (42-24 vs 30-24)
- • Both players have hard-court experience and mixed US Open results, reducing surface edge uncertainty
- • Market-implied probability (54.95%) is below our estimated true probability (58%), creating value