Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Jakub Mensik at 1.82 given his stronger recorded win rate and similar surface form; the edge is modest but positive.
Highlights
- • Mensik's win-rate advantage drives the edge
- • Current odds (1.82) are slightly richer than our fair value threshold (≈1.786)
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available market price (EV ≈ +1.9% per unit)
- + Data shows Mensik has more matches and a higher win percentage on the surfaces listed
Cons
- - Edge is small and vulnerable to missing information (H2H, injuries, late withdrawals)
- - Limited granularity in the Research (no match-up, recent injury or form details) increases variance
Details
We prefer Jakub Mensik because his career-level win rate (42-24, ~63.6%) is materially stronger than Frances Tiafoe's (30-24, ~55.6%) on the surfaces shown and both players have recent hard-court activity at the US Open. The market currently prices Mensik at 1.82 (implied ~54.9%). Based on form, volume of matches, and surface exposure contained in the Research, we estimate Mensik's true chance at ~56.0%, which is slightly above the market-implied probability and produces a small positive edge. The edge is modest (EV ≈ +0.019 per unit at 1.82) and should be treated as a low-margin, value-seeking play given uncertainty from limited head-to-head and injury information.
Key factors
- • Mensik's superior overall win rate (42-24 ≈ 63.6%) vs Tiafoe (30-24 ≈ 55.6%) in the provided data
- • Both players show recent hard-court US Open activity — surface familiarity is similar
- • Market price (1.82) implies ~54.9% — our 56% estimate yields a small positive expected value