Frances Tiafoe vs Jiri Lehecka
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value on Jiri Lehecka at 1.76; our model estimates his true win probability at 59%, producing ~3.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Lehecka shows a stronger aggregate record in the provided data
- • Current odds (1.76) exceed our breakeven price (1.695), giving positive EV
Pros
- + Positive expected value vs the market after adjusting for records and available info
- + No reported injuries or surface issues for Lehecka in the provided research
Cons
- - Edge is modest (~3.8% ROI) — small margin for error in the probability estimate
- - H2H and more granular recent-match context are not provided, increasing uncertainty
Details
The market prices Jiri Lehecka as the favorite at 1.76 (implied 56.8%). From the provided performance windows Lehecka has a stronger aggregate win rate (39-24, ~61.9% across the period) versus Tiafoe (30-24, ~55.6%). Recent results shown for both at the US Open are mixed and do not indicate an injury or clear form swing; surface exposure is similar for both players. Adjusting for the small market overround (~5.4%) and lack of negative information on Lehecka, we estimate a true win probability for Lehecka of 59.0%, which is higher than the market-implied 56.8%. At the available decimal price of 1.76 this yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.59 * 1.76 - 1 ≈ +0.038). The edge is modest but real under our model and justifies a lean toward the away player at current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • Lehecka's higher aggregate win rate in the provided period (39-24 vs 30-24)
- • Market-implied probability (56.8%) is below our estimated true probability (59.0%), producing positive EV
- • No injury flags or surface disadvantage noted in the provided research