Francesca Gandolfi vs Greta Rizzetto
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: the favorite's market price requires an implausibly high win probability given lack of supporting data, and the underdog is not priced generously enough to be profitable.
Highlights
- • Market-implied favorite probability (65.4%) >> our conservative estimate (58%)
- • Negative EV at the current home price (≈ -11.3% ROI per unit staked)
Pros
- + Clear favorite in market — prices likely reflect superior ranking or form if additional data existed
- + Available odds are standard and widely accessible
Cons
- - Insufficient match-specific information increases model uncertainty
- - Book margin (~7.9%) reduces any small edges and eliminates value here
Details
We find no value at the current prices. The market prices Francesca Gandolfi as a clear favorite at 1.53 (implied 65.4%) while Greta Rizzetto is 2.35 (implied 42.6%); the two implied probabilities sum to a ~7.9% vig. With no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, we apply conservative shrinkage toward 50/50 and give the home player a moderate edge (estimated true win probability 58%). That estimate is well below the home break-even threshold (65.36%), producing a negative EV at 1.53 (EV ≈ -0.113). The away break-even probability (42.55%) is slightly above our implied away estimate (~42%), so the underdog also lacks value. Given missing information and the bookmaker margin, neither side offers a positive expected value at current decimal odds.
Key factors
- • No independent data on form, surface, injuries or head-to-head — high uncertainty
- • Market favorite price (1.53) implies a win probability substantially above our conservative estimate
- • Bookmaker margin inflates implied probabilities and reduces potential value