Francesca Jones vs Lina Glushko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market severely overprices Francesca Jones; given both players' similar records and no evidence of a major gap, Lina Glushko at 9.5 presents strong value based on our 45% win-probability estimate, though the situation carries elevated event risk due to potential hidden factors.
Highlights
- • Jones implied ~94% chance at 1.06 — looks implausible given available data
- • Glushko's true chance plausibly near 40–50%, making 9.5 a high-value price
Pros
- + Very large theoretical ROI at current odds if our probability estimate is accurate
- + Research shows parity in form and surface experience, supporting a much closer match-up than odds imply
Cons
- - Extremely lopsided market price may indicate unreported factors (injury, late withdrawal risk, bookmaker issue)
- - Limited dataset and no H2H or tournament-context details in provided research increase uncertainty
Details
We see an extreme market skew: Francesca Jones priced at 1.06 (implied ~94.3%) and Lina Glushko at 9.5 (implied ~10.5%). The available research shows virtually identical career records (both 10-21 across 31 matches) and similar recent results and surface exposure (clay and hard). There is no evidence in the provided material of a severe form/injury gap or H2H advantage that would justify a >80-point difference in true win probability. Given parity in record and surface history, we conservatively estimate Glushko's chance materially higher than the market-implied ~10.5%. Using an estimated true probability of 45% for Glushko produces a large positive edge vs the quoted 9.5 price (EV = 0.45*9.5 - 1 = 3.275). Even under far more conservative assumptions (Glushko >11% chance), the price would be attractive. Because the research set contains no rationale for the heavy favoritism to Jones, the underdog price represents clear value in our view. We note, however, that the market skew may reflect unreported factors (late injury, withdrawal risk, or bookmaker error), so the trade carries elevated event risk despite the mathematical edge.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Glushko is ~10.5% at 9.5 — likely too low given comparable records
- • Both players show similar career records (10-21) and have played clay and hard — no clear dominance
- • No injuries or disqualifying info in the provided research to justify heavy favoritism to Jones