Francesca Jones vs Solana Sierra
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Solana Sierra at 2.42 because the market overprices Francesca Jones despite near-identical profiles; our model estimates Sierra at 46% to win producing ~11% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market-implied away probability 41.3% vs our estimate 46%
- • Break-even decimal for our probability is 2.174; current 2.42 exceeds that
Pros
- + Price currently provides a clear EV cushion versus our estimated probability
- + No injury or surface evidence favoring the market favorite
Cons
- - Both players show poor recent form, increasing volatility and upset risk
- - Limited data and no H2H/contextual edges means estimate has uncertainty
Details
We view the market as overpricing the favorite Francesca Jones (implied win prob ~62.4%) given nearly identical career records and recent form for both players. Both profiles show 10-21 records, mixed clay/hard experience and no clear edge; the bookmaker prices Solana Sierra at 2.42 (implied ~41.3%). We estimate Solana's true win probability closer to 46% based on parity between players and absence of a decisive form/injury edge, which produces positive expected value (EV = 0.46 * 2.42 - 1 ≈ +0.113). Therefore the away line offers value at current prices because the market appears to overreact to a marginal favorite without additional evidence.
Key factors
- • Nearly identical career records and recent form — no clear superiority
- • Bookmaker strongly favors the home player (implied ~62.4%) despite no evidence of advantage
- • Current away price (2.42) offers a required win-rate (~41.3%) well below our estimated 46%