Francesca Curmi vs Angelica Raggi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overprices the favorite; with both players showing nearly identical records and no clear edge, Raggi at 3.26 looks to offer value based on our 35% win probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Both players 10-21 with similar recent results and surfaces
- • Current price implies Raggi has only ~30.7% chance, we estimate ~35%
Pros
- + Significant margin between our estimated probability and the market-implied probability for Raggi
- + No evidence in the provided research that strongly differentiates the two players
Cons
- - Limited and sparse data in the research; small-sample uncertainty is high
- - Market may be incorporating information not present in the provided sources (rankings, recent practice, local conditions)
Details
We find value on the away moneyline (Angelica Raggi at 3.26). The research shows both players have nearly identical profiles (career span, total matches, and a 10-21 record) and similar surface experience, so there is no strong performance-based justification for the large market gap implied by the current prices. The bookmaker-implied probability for the favorite (Francesca Curmi at 1.345) is ~74.3%, which is outsized relative to the available form data. Given the symmetrical records and lack of H2H or injury information favoring Curmi, we estimate Raggi's true win probability around 35%, which exceeds the ~30.7% implied by 3.26 and therefore yields positive expected value. Calculation: estimated_true_probability (0.35) * odds_used_for_ev (3.26) - 1 = 0.141 EV per unit staked.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface exposure, so form does not strongly favor the market favorite
- • Bookmaker price for Curmi (1.345) implies a very large edge (~74%) that is not supported by the provided data
- • No injury reports, H2H, or clear surface advantage in the provided research to justify the heavy favorite price