Francesca Dell'edera vs Marie Villet

Highlights

• • Market implies Villet ~78% to win despite matched profiles
• • Dell'edera at 3.30 is priced well above a reasonable fair price (~2.00)

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current odds (EV = +0.65 assuming 50% true win rate)
• + Research does not show a clear performance advantage for the favorite

Cons

• - Overall records (10-21) indicate both players have struggled this season—outcomes can be volatile
• - Limited detail (no H2H, limited injury/form context) increases uncertainty despite the value

Details

We find clear value on Francesca Dell'edera (home). The market prices Marie Villet at 1.279 (implied win prob ≈ 78.2%) and Dell'edera at 3.30 (implied ≈ 30.3%). The available player data shows near-identical career records (both 10-21) and similar recent results and surface experience, so there is no substantive evidence to justify a ~78% win probability for Villet. Conservatively estimating the true win probability for Dell'edera at 50.0% (reflecting largely symmetric profiles and no decisive edge in the research), the fair odds would be 2.00. At the quoted 3.30, Dell'edera offers strong positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 3.30 - 1 = +0.65 (65% ROI on a unit stake). Even a more conservative estimate (45%) still yields positive EV. Given the heavy market skew to the favorite and the near-identical scouting data, backing the underdog at 3.30 represents a value bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical records (10-21) and similar recent results in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors the away player (1.279) implying ~78%—likely an overstatement given profiles
• • Surface experience (clay, hard) appears comparable, offering no clear edge
• • Lack of distinguishing recent form or H2H data makes a ~50/50 true split defensible